zhenbo

ISSN?0253-3782 CN?11-2021/P

引用本文: 金星1,2) 张红才1,2) 李军1) 韦永祥1) 马强2). 2012.?地震预警震级确定方法研究.?地震学报,?34(5):?593-610. shu
Citation:? Jin Xingup, Zhang Hongcaiup, Li Jun Wei Yongxiang Ma Qianguppayda. 2012.?Research on earthquake early warning magnitude estimate.?Acta Seismologica Sinica,?34(5):?593-610. shu

地震预警震级确定方法研究

  • 基金项目:

摘要: 地震预警技术是减轻地震灾害损失的有效手段之一.地震预警系统中,地震震级计算是最重要也是最困难的部分之一.利用日本KiK-net台网和四川汶川余震共142次地震事件的记录,分别采用tau;c和Pd方法统计得到了地震预警震级的计算公式,震级计算的方差分别为0.62和0.56个震级单位.为消除震级计算过程中出现的震级饱和现象,作者拓展了Pd方法,提出了一套对位移幅值连续追踪测定的算法.当时间窗长度为10 s时,采用该方法的震级计算方差仅为0.37个震级单位,充分满足地震预警系统的需求.同时,该方法也实现了信息的连续过渡,提高了对现有信息的利用率.最后,还对位移幅值Pd用于地震动峰值PGV的估计以及不同特征参数间的相容性等内容进行了讨论.

English

    1. 金星, 马强, 李山有. 2003. 四种计算地震反应数值方法的比较研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 23(1): 18——30.

      马强, 金星, 李山有. 2003. 单自由度系统地震动力反应的实时计算方法[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 23(5): 61——68.

      马强. 2008. 地震预警技术研究与应用[D]. 哈尔滨: 中国地震局工程力学研究所: 124——134.

      张红才, 金星, 李军, 韦永祥, 马强. 2012. 地震预警震级计算方法研究综述[J]. 地球物理学进展, 27(2): 464——474.

      Allen R M, Kanamori H. 2003. The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J]. Science, 300: 786——789.

      Allen R M, Brown H, Hellweg M, Kireev A, Neuhauser D. 2007. Real——time test of the ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology[J]. J Geophys Res, 112(B08311), doi:10.1029/2008GL036366.

      Ellsworth W L, Beroza G C. 1995. Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase[J]. Science, 268: 851——855.

      Ellsworth W L, Heaton T. 1994. Real——time analysis of earthquakes: early——warning systems and rapid damage assessment[J]. Sensors, (April): 27——33.

      Erdik M, Fahjan Y, Ozel O, Alcik H, Mert A, Gul M. 2003. Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J]. Bull Earthq Eng, 1(1): 157——163.

      Hsiao N C, Wu Y M, Shin T C, Li Z,?Teng T L. 2009. Development of an earthquake early warning system in Taiwan[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 36: L00B02, doi:10.1029/2008 GL036596.

      Iannaccone G, Zollo A, Elia L. 2010. A prototype system for earthquake early——warning and alert management in southern Italy[J]. Bull Earthq Eng. 8(5):1105——1129.

      Iglesias A, Singh S K, Santoyo M A, Pacheco J, Ordaz M. 2007. The seismic alert system for Mexico City: an evaluation of its performance and a strategy for its improvement[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 97(5): 1718——1729.

      Iio Y. 1992. Slow initial phase of the P——wave velocity pulse generated by micro——earthquakes[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 19(5): 477——80.

      Iio Y. 1995. Observations of the slow initial phase generated by micro——earthquakes: implications for earthquake nucleation and propagation[J]. J Geophys Res, 100(B8): 15333——15349.

      Kamigaichi O, Saito M, Doi K, Matsumori T, Tsukada S, Takeda K, Shimoyama T, Nakamura K, Kiyomoto M, Watanabe Y. 2009. Earthquake early warning in Japan: warning the general public and future prospects[J]. Seism Res Lett, 80(5): 717——726.

      Kanamori H, Hauksson E, Heaton T. 1997. Real——time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation[J]. Nature, 390: 461——464.

      Kanamori H. 2005. Real——time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J]. Annu Rev Earth Pl Sci, 33: 195——214.

      Kilb D, Gomberg J. 1999. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?[J]. J Seismol, 3(4): 409——420.

      Lancieri M, Zollo A. 2008. A Bayesian approach to the real——time estimation of magnitude from the early P and S wave displacement peaks[J]. J Geophys Res, 113: B12302, doi:10.1029/2007 JB005386.

      Mori J, Kanamori H. 1996. Rupture initiations of microearthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California, sequence[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 2437——2440.

      Murphy S, Nielsen S. 2009. Estimating earthquake magnitude with early arrivals: A test using dynamic and kinematic models[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 99(1): 1——23.

      Nakamura Y. 1988. On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system (UrEDAS)[C]∥Proceedings of Ninth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 7: 673——678.

      Nakatani M, Kaneshima S, Fukao Y. 2000. Size dependent microearthquake initiation inferred from high——gain and low——noise observations at Nikko district, Japan[J]. J Geophys Res, 105(B12): 28095——28109.

      Olson E L, Allen R M. 2005. The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture[J]. Nature, 438: 212——215.

      Rydelek P, Horiuchi S. 2006. Is earthquake rupture deterministic?[J]. Nature, 442: E5——E6, doi:10.1038/nature04963.

      Umeda Y. 1990. High——amplitude seismic waves radiated from the bright spot of an earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 175(1——3): 81——92.

      Umeda Y. 1992. The bright spot of an earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 211(1——4): 13——22.

      Wolfe C J. 2006. On the properties of predominant——period estimators for earthquake early warning[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 96(5): 1961——1965.

      Wu Y M, Kanamori H. 2005. Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 95(1): 347——353.

      Wu Y M, Li Z. 2006. Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P——wave amplitude in earthquake early warning[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L16312, doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.

      Wu Y M, Kanamori H, Richard M A, Hauksson E. 2007. Determination of earthquake early warning parameters, τc and Pd, for southern California[J]. Geophys J Int, 170: 711——717.

      Wu Y M, Kanamori H. 2008. Development of an earthquake early warning system using real——time strong motion signals[J]. Sensors, 8(1): 1——9.

      Zollo A, Lancieri M, Nielsen S. 2006. Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L23312, dio:10.1029/2006GL027795.


      金星, 马强, 李山有. 2003. 四种计算地震反应数值方法的比较研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 23(1): 18——30.

      马强, 金星, 李山有. 2003. 单自由度系统地震动力反应的实时计算方法[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 23(5): 61——68.

      马强. 2008. 地震预警技术研究与应用[D]. 哈尔滨: 中国地震局工程力学研究所: 124——134.

      张红才, 金星, 李军, 韦永祥, 马强. 2012. 地震预警震级计算方法研究综述[J]. 地球物理学进展, 27(2): 464——474.

      Allen R M, Kanamori H. 2003. The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J]. Science, 300: 786——789.

      Allen R M, Brown H, Hellweg M, Kireev A, Neuhauser D. 2007. Real——time test of the ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology[J]. J Geophys Res, 112(B08311), doi:10.1029/2008GL036366.

      Ellsworth W L, Beroza G C. 1995. Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase[J]. Science, 268: 851——855.

      Ellsworth W L, Heaton T. 1994. Real——time analysis of earthquakes: early——warning systems and rapid damage assessment[J]. Sensors, (April): 27——33.

      Erdik M, Fahjan Y, Ozel O, Alcik H, Mert A, Gul M. 2003. Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J]. Bull Earthq Eng, 1(1): 157——163.

      Hsiao N C, Wu Y M, Shin T C, Li Z,?Teng T L. 2009. Development of an earthquake early warning system in Taiwan[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 36: L00B02, doi:10.1029/2008 GL036596.

      Iannaccone G, Zollo A, Elia L. 2010. A prototype system for earthquake early——warning and alert management in southern Italy[J]. Bull Earthq Eng. 8(5):1105——1129.

      Iglesias A, Singh S K, Santoyo M A, Pacheco J, Ordaz M. 2007. The seismic alert system for Mexico City: an evaluation of its performance and a strategy for its improvement[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 97(5): 1718——1729.

      Iio Y. 1992. Slow initial phase of the P——wave velocity pulse generated by micro——earthquakes[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 19(5): 477——80.

      Iio Y. 1995. Observations of the slow initial phase generated by micro——earthquakes: implications for earthquake nucleation and propagation[J]. J Geophys Res, 100(B8): 15333——15349.

      Kamigaichi O, Saito M, Doi K, Matsumori T, Tsukada S, Takeda K, Shimoyama T, Nakamura K, Kiyomoto M, Watanabe Y. 2009. Earthquake early warning in Japan: warning the general public and future prospects[J]. Seism Res Lett, 80(5): 717——726.

      Kanamori H, Hauksson E, Heaton T. 1997. Real——time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation[J]. Nature, 390: 461——464.

      Kanamori H. 2005. Real——time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J]. Annu Rev Earth Pl Sci, 33: 195——214.

      Kilb D, Gomberg J. 1999. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?[J]. J Seismol, 3(4): 409——420.

      Lancieri M, Zollo A. 2008. A Bayesian approach to the real——time estimation of magnitude from the early P and S wave displacement peaks[J]. J Geophys Res, 113: B12302, doi:10.1029/2007 JB005386.

      Mori J, Kanamori H. 1996. Rupture initiations of microearthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California, sequence[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23: 2437——2440.

      Murphy S, Nielsen S. 2009. Estimating earthquake magnitude with early arrivals: A test using dynamic and kinematic models[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 99(1): 1——23.

      Nakamura Y. 1988. On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system (UrEDAS)[C]∥Proceedings of Ninth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 7: 673——678.

      Nakatani M, Kaneshima S, Fukao Y. 2000. Size dependent microearthquake initiation inferred from high——gain and low——noise observations at Nikko district, Japan[J]. J Geophys Res, 105(B12): 28095——28109.

      Olson E L, Allen R M. 2005. The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture[J]. Nature, 438: 212——215.

      Rydelek P, Horiuchi S. 2006. Is earthquake rupture deterministic?[J]. Nature, 442: E5——E6, doi:10.1038/nature04963.

      Umeda Y. 1990. High——amplitude seismic waves radiated from the bright spot of an earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 175(1——3): 81——92.

      Umeda Y. 1992. The bright spot of an earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 211(1——4): 13——22.

      Wolfe C J. 2006. On the properties of predominant——period estimators for earthquake early warning[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 96(5): 1961——1965.

      Wu Y M, Kanamori H. 2005. Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J]. Bull Seism Soc Amer, 95(1): 347——353.

      Wu Y M, Li Z. 2006. Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P——wave amplitude in earthquake early warning[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L16312, doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.

      Wu Y M, Kanamori H, Richard M A, Hauksson E. 2007. Determination of earthquake early warning parameters, τc and Pd, for southern California[J]. Geophys J Int, 170: 711——717.

      Wu Y M, Kanamori H. 2008. Development of an earthquake early warning system using real——time strong motion signals[J]. Sensors, 8(1): 1——9.

      Zollo A, Lancieri M, Nielsen S. 2006. Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion records[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 33: L23312, dio:10.1029/2006GL027795.

    1. [1]

      张红才 ,?金星 ,?李军 ,?陈智勇 , 2017:?Pd-τc相容性检验方法在触发事件判别分析中的应用,?地震学报,?39,?102-110. doi:?10.11939/jass.2017.01.009

    2. [2]

      王博 蒋海昆 宋金 , 2012:?水库诱发地震震级预测的统计研究,?地震学报,?34,?689-697.

    3. [3]

      秦长源① , 2000:?地震震级误差对bem>值的影响,?地震学报,?22,?337-344.

    4. [4]

      傅瑀, 张宏志, 颉俊英, 胡珍 , 1987:?近震震级测定方法研究,?地震学报,?9,?52-64.

    5. [5]

      杨智娴 , 1999:?海峡两岸地震目录中台湾地震震级之异同,?地震学报,?21,?608-615.

    6. [6]

      陈中天 ,?郭星 ,?潘华 ,?李金臣 , 2016:?中国大陆特征地震震级分布规律,?地震学报,?38,?898-905. doi:?10.11939/jass.2016.06.009

    7. [7]

      钱小仕 ,?王福昌 ,?盛书中 , 2013:?基于广义帕累托分布的地震震级分布尾部特征分析,?地震学报,?35,?341-350. doi:?10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2013.03.006

    8. [8]

      马逢时 , 1982:?评B.Epstein关于地震震级分布的统计模型/,?地震学报,?4,?426-433.

    9. [9]

      王晓青傅征祥蒋铭 , 1996:?2005年前中国大陆地震震级概率预测,?地震学报,?18,?420-426.

    10. [10]

      段星北 , 1998:?宏观地震震源深度公式及其精确计算方法,?地震学报,?20,?255-263.

    11. [11]

      刘鹏程郑天愉 , 1996:?用全局反演方法确定地震震源的最佳和极端模型 ,?地震学报,?18,?11-18.

    12. [12]

      许绍燮 , 1993:?地震活动性预报地震方法,?地震学报,?15,?239-252.

    13. [13]

      许 洋1)吴忠良1,2) 蒋长胜1)俞言祥1)杨建思1) , 2008:?用前3秒P波估计地震大小的早期预警方法是否适用于短周期记录?-1999年集集地震序列的模拟实验,?地震学报,?30,?135-143.

    14. [14]

      陈培善1, 秦嘉政2 , 1983:?量规函数、台站方位、台基及不同测量方法对近震震级 MLsub> 的影响,?地震学报,?5,?87-98.

    15. [15]

      边银菊王婷婷 郭永霞 , 2012:?用决策方法识别地震和爆破,?地震学报,?34,?397-407.

    16. [16]

      李学政1) 雷 军2) , 2001:?近场爆炸地震优化定位方法研究,?地震学报,?23,?328-333.

    17. [17]

      田云锋1,2) 沈正康1,3) , 2009:?GPS坐标时间序列中非构造噪声的剔除方法研究进展c,?地震学报,?31,?68-81.

    18. [18]

      沈建文 , 1992:?无震级上限累计b值及其回归确定方法 ,?地震学报,?14,?683-690.

    19. [19]

      梁建宏 ,?孙丽 ,?徐志国 ,?刘杰 , 2015:?2013年四川芦山MS7.0地震自动速报震级偏差分析及方法改进,?地震学报,?37,?983-996. doi:?10.11939/jass.2015.06.009

    20. [20]

      薄万举 谢觉民 罗三明 , 2001:?前兆信息提取的一种新方法-斜率差信息法c ,?地震学报,?23,?159-166.

  • 加载中
计量
  • PDF下载量:? 519
  • 文章访问数:? 2813
  • HTML全文浏览量:? 998
  • 引证文献数:?0
文章相关
  • 网络出版日期:? 2012-08-30
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1.?

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

/

返回文章
本系统由北京仁和汇智信息技术有限公司设计开发?技术支持:?info@rhhz.net 百度统计