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ISSN?0253-3782 CN?11-2021/P

利用P波参数阈值实时估算地震预警潜在破坏区范围

彭朝勇 ,? 杨建思

引用本文: 彭朝勇,?杨建思. 2019.?利用P波参数阈值实时估算地震预警潜在破坏区范围.?地震学报,?41(3):?354-365. doi: 10.11939/jass.20190140 shu
Citation:? Peng Chaoyong,?Yang Jiansi. 2019.?Real-time estimation of potentially damaged zone for earthquake early warning based on thresholds of P-wave parameters.?Acta Seismologica Sinica,?41(3):?354-365. doi: 10.11939/jass.20190140 shu

利用P波参数阈值实时估算地震预警潜在破坏区范围

摘要: 由于传统的潜在破坏区范围估算方法只能在已获取到震中位置和地震事件结束后才能产出,且往往需要数分钟的耗时,其实时性已无法满足地震预警要求。因此,为了快速产出潜在破坏区范围估算结果并将其用于预警,本文采用了一种结合现地预警技术和区域预警技术、基于预警参数(位移幅值Pd和特征周期τc)阈值的实时潜在破坏区范围估算方法。首先利用国内地震事件(4.0≤MS≤8.0)的记录数据和日本强震动观测事件(6.5≤MJ≤8.0)的数据拟合出特定的适应于我国的参数关系式,包括τc与震级M的相关性、Pd与峰值速度PGV的相关性以及Pdτc和震源距R的相关性;其次,根据最小震级(MS6.0)和仪器烈度(Ⅶ度)定义相应的参数阈值(Pd=0.1 cm和τc=1.1 s);最后,利用已有的3次破坏性地震事件数据开展线下模拟,对该方法的适应性和时效性进行了验证。结果表明,对于2013年MS7.0四川芦山和2014年MS6.5云南鲁甸两次中强地震,震后约10 s即可获取到比较稳定的潜在破坏区范围估计结果;而对于2008年MS8.0汶川特大地震,在其记录台站分布密度不高的情况下,震后40 s左右的估算结果始呈稳定状态。

English

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  • 图?1? 本研究所用震例分布情况

    Figure?1.? Distribution of earthquakes used in this study

    图?2? τc与震级M的相关性

    Figure?2.? Correlations between τc and magnitude M

    图?3? Pd与PGV相关性

    Figure?3.? Relationship between Pd and PGV

    图?4? 位移幅值Pdτc和震源距R分布图

    Figure?4.? Pd as a function of τc and hypocentral distance R

    图?5? 鲁甸MS6.6 (a)、芦山MS7.0 (b)和汶川MS8.0 (c)地震在发震后指定秒的潜在破坏区范围模拟结果

    Figure?5.? Simulation results of potentially damaged zone estimation in the specified seconds after the earthquake occurred time for the Ludian MS6.5 (a),Lushan MS7.0 (b) and Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquakes (c)

    事件 发震时刻 震中位置 震源深度/km MS
    年?月?日 时:分:秒 东经/° 北纬/°
    云南鲁甸地震 2014?08?03 16:30:12 103.33 27.11 10 6.6
    四川芦山地震 2013?04?20 08:02:48 102.99 30.30 17 7.0
    四川汶川地震 2008?05?12 14:28:00 103.42 31.01 14 8.0

    表?1? 线下模拟的3次破坏性地震事件的相关信息

    Table?1.? The three damaging earthquakes used for off-line simulation

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  • 通讯作者:? 彭朝勇, pengchaoyong@cea-igp.ac.cn
  • 收稿日期:? 2018-12-01
  • 录用日期:? 2019-02-20
  • 网络出版日期:? 2019-05-01
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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